AMD is from Mars, Investors are from Venus.

by Kris_Tuttle on December 15, 2007

Ana­lysts stum­bled over them­selves to make pun­ish­ing com­ments on AMD post their ana­lyst meeting. 

We don’t nor­mally take an inter­est in com­pa­nies like AMD but you could cut through the ana­lyst and investor frus­tra­tion with a knife.  Of course man­age­ment didn’t paint a very encour­ag­ing pic­ture.  Imag­ine address­ing the ana­lyst com­mu­nity with the line “[we admit to a] lack of prof­its in all busi­nesses, appallingly neg­a­tive cash flow, poor dis­tri­b­u­tion man­age­ment and large mar­ket share declines.“  Yipes!

Part of the prob­lem is as hard as they tried man­age­ment demon­strated that they have a hard time under­stand­ing the invest­ment com­mu­nity.  The fact that the Chair­man of the Board, Hec­tor Ruiz, exclaimed that he doesn’t under­stand how the val­u­a­tion of the com­pany could be worth 40% less than it was just a short time ago.  Well Hec­tor, when you have a pile of debt and you are los­ing money in all your busi­nesses it can com­press your equity val­u­a­tion pretty fast!

Set­ting aside the angst for a moment there is prob­a­bly more poten­tial in the name for 2008 than many might think.  His­tor­i­cally AMD was only an also-ran to Intel which is how they are often looked at today.  How­ever AMD has changed some things in the last 12 months that make the sit­u­a­tion different.

For a lit­tle while they were ahead of Intel which helped shift their image a bit (and also took a chink out of the Intel brand.)  While Intel is now back in the dri­vers seat AMD will lose share in servers and the core PC mar­ket.   But AMD will main­tain a steady if lower share nonetheless.

AMD may have over­paid for the ATI acqui­si­tion but it has given them a much bet­ter foothold and set of growth oppor­tu­ni­ties then they have ever had.  While the Intel/AMD ana­lysts panned AMD there were a few who cover Nvidia and the graph­ics space who noted that due to a fresh prod­uct cycle and a num­ber of design wins AMD/ATI is poised to gain share in the graph­ics space dur­ing 2008 at the expense of Nvidia.

Beyond the two core mar­kets there are some sideshow attrac­tions in mobile and flat-panel TV that may also help a lit­tle bit.  If they can diver­sify their hand­set busi­ness to other man­u­fac­tur­ers it could be more than a little.

The key is still get­ting oper­a­tions back in order and mak­ing the new plan work.  Pro­duc­tion has to ramp, promises have to be kept and num­bers have to come in at or bet­ter than guid­ance which is for break-even in Q2. 

AMD will be CapEx con­strained in 2008 and look­ing to turn some por­tion of their $600M in excess assets into cash which should pro­vide some addi­tional cush­ion for operations.

The last thing that is a lit­tle both­er­some is the absurdly aggres­sive long-term tar­gets the CFO put out there.  The near-term 2008 plans are rea­son­able and call for excel­lent exe­cu­tion.  Then the long-term plan jumps up to 18% to 24% oper­at­ing mar­gins!  What?!  We’d say that 15% would be an admirable and almost mirac­u­lous result from here.  How can man­age­ment put these num­bers out in this environment? 

It only pro­vides evi­dence that AMD man­age­ment just doesn’t quite know how to talk with ana­lysts, investors and the mar­ket.   Tak­ing it all in sug­gests that there prob­a­bly is more value in the busi­ness than the cur­rent val­u­a­tion accounts for.  We don’t agree with the man­age­ment plea that “the glass is half full” but if they can exe­cute on the basics in the next few quar­ters there is more upside than if they were just the #2 CPU com­pany in the market.

– Kris Tuttle

[Research 2.0 pur­chased a small posi­tion in AMD post their ana­lyst meeting.]

Tags: ,

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: