At least make an effort on Dell.

by Kris_Tuttle on May 30, 2008

We were thrilled to see some short-term upside on Dell last night post the strong results.  It is still a multi-quarter story but pos­i­tive rein­force­ment is a good thing.

What puz­zles us is how inept some of the large firms still are at help­ing peo­ple make money in stocks.  Dell is a very large, well cov­ered firm.  It was impos­si­ble not to see tremen­dous value in the shares at $19 given their fran­chise and huge cash flow.  With an influx of new man­age­ment and some clear evi­dence that fun­da­men­tals were steady and get­ting bet­ter there were plenty of rea­sons to believe the com­pany would get back on track.  Add to that a huge share buy­back and the inevitabil­ity of even­tual easy com­pares and you have a per­fect set up to make money on a one year view in a very large liq­uid stock.

At one level we’re happy to see the lack of thought­ful analy­sis because it means it’s eas­ier for our fund to make prof­its on stocks that are sup­posed to be well-covered.  But still as a recov­er­ing DoR I can’t help but scratch my head when I see the upgrade today from Merrill.

To miss the chance a lower prices before the turn isn’t that big of a sin.  We’d all like to have per­fect tim­ing but know that’s impos­si­ble.  The real crime isn’t upgrad­ing the stock today when it is likely to open at $23–24 but it’s putting a $27 price tar­get on it.  Who is review­ing the research prod­uct?  It’s easy to do a long-term val­u­a­tion and come up with a very con­ser­v­a­tive cur­rent fair value of $30–34 on Dell.  If you don’t use a dis­count you can stay quite rea­son­ably that the stock could be trad­ing at $40 in 12–18 months.  That’s what you do when you are upgrad­ing after a $19 to $24 move and want to get back in the game.

If you don’t believe it then you keep your hold, pro­vide your argu­ments and have some clar­ity of mes­sage and intel­lec­tual integrity.  Maybe ML still uses one of those bogus sys­tems where the price used as the “upgrade price” would be yesterday’s close.  It’s obvi­ously fraud­u­lent since the real price where will be where the stock opens this morn­ing but in the past this tech­nique has been used to pub­lish great per­for­mance fig­ures on research ana­lysts that nobody can remem­ber ever mak­ing them any money.

– Kris Tuttle

[R2 Cap­i­tal remains long shares of Dell.]

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