We’ve been following Data Domain for over a year and it has tended to be too expensive to buy. Our intrinsic value (IV) estimate has been fairly consistent at $24/share but recent inputs suggest the company may be able to do well enough for us to tweak our model higher and see an IV in the upper-$20’s.
The recent market turmoil has reduced the price to just over $20 which makes this a strong candidate for boosting overall 2008 returns. The shares could easily finish the year up 20% from here.
Our inputs underscore the competitive lead that Data Domain enjoys in the marketplace. The major competitors like EMC are still over a year behind. In addition it has proven out to be much more difficult to switch deduplication vendors than most people originally thought, enhancing lock-in.
We published an updated report entitled “Data Domain One Year Later ($)” with more information and to serve as a follow-up from our initial report published when they did their IPO in 2007. Subscribers received the report in June when DDUP was trading higher meaning there wasn’t a strong stock call at the time.
However at current prices our clients should be more aggressive. The report is also available for purchase at the link above for those wanting more details.
Comments on this entry are closed.
{ 1 trackback }