Data Domain (DDUP) reaches buy point.

by Kris_Tuttle on July 16, 2008

We’ve been fol­low­ing Data Domain for over a year and it has tended to be too expen­sive to buy.  Our intrin­sic value (IV) esti­mate has been fairly con­sis­tent at $24/share but recent inputs sug­gest the com­pany may be able to do well enough for us to tweak our model higher and see an IV in the upper-$20’s.

The recent mar­ket tur­moil has reduced the price to just over $20 which makes this a strong can­di­date for boost­ing over­all 2008 returns. The shares could eas­ily fin­ish the year up 20% from here.

Our inputs under­score the com­pet­i­tive lead that Data Domain enjoys in the mar­ket­place.  The major com­peti­tors like EMC are still over a year behind.  In addi­tion it has proven out to be much more dif­fi­cult to switch dedu­pli­ca­tion ven­dors than most peo­ple orig­i­nally thought, enhanc­ing lock-in.

We pub­lished an updated report enti­tled “Data Domain One Year Later ($)” with more infor­ma­tion and to serve as a follow-up from our ini­tial report pub­lished when they did their IPO in 2007.  Sub­scribers received the report in June when DDUP was trad­ing higher mean­ing there wasn’t a strong stock call at the time.

How­ever at cur­rent prices our clients should be more aggres­sive. The report is also avail­able for pur­chase at the link above for those want­ing more details.

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