Investors may be giving Microsoft a gift in Research in Motion.

by Kris_Tuttle on January 6, 2010

Investors have clearly been vot­ing with their feet when it comes to the bat­tle for the Mobile Inter­net between Apple and Research in Motion (RIM). This comes at a time when it’s become crys­tal clear to all (includ­ing them) that Microsoft des­per­ately needs a strong play in mobile but is too far behind to catch up with­out a major acquisition.

Put sim­ply RIM is suf­fer­ing from neg­a­tive investor sen­ti­ment. Not only is it com­ing from Apple in the form of the iPhone but also in the shape of soft­ware and ser­vices under the Android umbrella from Google. Motorola appears more com­pet­i­tive thanks to Android. To add insult to injury peo­ple are start­ing to take Nokia more seri­ously in the space based on more claims by senior man­age­ment about what’s com­ing in the future. (This from a com­pany who for the first 16 months of board-level report­ing had grouped “smart phones” into the “design and fash­ion” cat­e­gory instead of full-featured data!)

AAPLRIMMDiverge.png

Based on Intrin­sic Value (IV) RIM is the most under­val­ued com­pany in the mobile space right now. And that’s fac­tor­ing in all the present investor fears of slow­ing growth and lower mar­gins for the next few years, almost dial­ing in a worst-case sce­nario. We admit that it doesn’t make RIM “cheap” as an acqui­si­tion but it does begin to make it look rea­son­able and poten­tially non-dilutive for Microsoft to consider.

The fact is Microsoft *NEEDS* more than just a strat­egy and tech­nol­ogy, they need a foot­print. The choices are few but Microsoft is large enough to buy any of them includ­ing Nokia. But Microsoft doesn’t need to be in the cell phone busi­ness the need to be in the mobile Inter­net space which is the world of the iPhone, Black­berry and Android class of device. Palm has some good tech­nol­ogy but doesn’t come with a foot­print, espe­cially in the enter­prise. Motorola has too much bag­gage in non-phone busi­nesses and what they do have is now based on Android.

Boil­ing it down to price is the hard part. On cur­rent num­bers RIM is trad­ing at a bit over 1x 2015 rev­enues. But the mar­ket will look at cur­rent rev­enues and there will have to be an acqui­si­tion pre­mium of at least 20%. That would trans­late into a P/S ratio of around 4x and result in some near-term pun­ish­ment for MSFT stock and investors focus in on near term dilution.

Strate­gi­cally how­ever this would be a mas­ter­ful stroke for Microsoft. Almost no mat­ter what Win­dows 7 Mobile looks like it will appear too late in the game to gather any mean­ing­ful share and atten­tion. Mobile is too impor­tant to set­tle for that as the best outcome.

Of course RIM doesn’t need Microsoft to make their busi­ness work or for the stock to reach our IV esti­mates. But there is no ques­tion that the com­pany needs to con­tinue to exe­cute well. RIM has advan­tages in both the enter­prise and the con­sumer space that can be used to fend off Apple and Google but they are going to need to pro­tect and extend these in order to win.

In addi­tion we’d expect other large firms like HP and IBM are now appre­ci­at­ing the almost over­whelm­ing impor­tance of mobile and both com­pa­nies know RIM well and would be able to acquire the com­pany fairly easily.

[Dis­clo­sure: The Research 2.0 model port­fo­lio has posi­tions RIMM, AAPL and MOT.]

{ 1 comment }

Steve Waite January 7, 2010 at 1:49 PM

RIM is indeed an attractive acquisition candidate for all the reasons you mention.

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