Worries on Google International Materialize.…

by Kris_Tuttle on January 8, 2010

Back in Sep­tem­ber we wrote Is Google Inter­na­tional Growth in Jeop­ardy? and today our fears came one step closer to being real­ized with the news that France is now seri­ously look­ing at a tax on the adver­tis­ing rev­enue col­lected by com­pa­nies like Google in France.

This isn’t as strange as it seems. The suc­cess of com­pa­nies like Google means that for­eign coun­tries are in fact see­ing bil­lions of dol­lars of rev­enue effec­tively sucked out of their econ­omy. Many of these coun­tries, France included, see this sit­u­a­tion becom­ing unten­able. At the same time these gov­ern­ments are spend­ing vastly increased sums of their own money on Inter­net infra­struc­ture includ­ing broad­band and con­tent. If they are spend­ing bil­lions on these improve­ments only to see Google reap the reward with­out even pay­ing a tax.

I think it’s highly likely that coun­tries will impose a tax of some sort on this type of busi­ness activ­ity. At least in the most extreme case for local adver­tis­ing on www.google.fr for exam­ple. As long as the tax is rea­son­able it’s not going to be a dis­as­ter for Google but it will reduce their mar­gins a lit­tle bit. The mag­ni­tude depends on the num­ber of coun­tries that decide to adopt such a stance.

These debates have been around for over a decade and started with the desire for states to tax sales of phys­i­cal goods via online chan­nels like Amazon.com. The prob­lem today is that the num­bers have become *much* larger. At the same time local economies are strug­gling and to some, albeit small, degree the loss of local rev­enue to global com­pa­nies like Google is part of the rea­son. The truth is it’s more like salt in the wound cre­ated by the finan­cial cri­sis, eco­nomic slow­down, high unem­ploy­ment and lower prop­erty values.

It’s easy to decry gov­ern­ment inter­fer­ence and avarice here but it’s not pos­si­ble if at the same time every­one wants the gov­ern­ment to sub­si­dize “broad­band for every­one” and other tech­nol­ogy infra­struc­ture improvements.

Google might think about tak­ing a more con­struc­tive approach than com­pa­nies like Microsoft, Ora­cle and Intel have in the past. Maybe a bet­ter solu­tion would be to actu­ally help coun­tries like France instead of fight­ing them? For exam­ple the French gov­ern­ment is ramp­ing up a very large set of spend­ing ini­tia­tives that will in fact help Google quite a bit. What if Google came for­ward with a con­tri­bu­tion of exper­tise and some small rev­enue share to focus on devel­op­ing the French online tech­nol­ogy industry?

Google may or may not real­ize that this is closer to what Microsoft is doing in places like France and it’s effec­tive. Google is pow­er­ful enough to lose some of these bat­tles and it won’t nec­es­sar­ily impact the stock price in the short term. But at the same time it wouldn’t take a huge effort for Google to turn the sit­u­a­tion in their favor or at least to neu­tral­ize what could be a sting­ing devel­op­ment if it is allowed to gather momentum.

[Dis­clo­sure: Google is part of the Research 2.0 model portfolio.]

{ 1 comment }

Steve Waite January 8, 2010 at 5:22 PM

This doesn’t suprise me at all. In fact, it’s exactly the kind of behavior one would expect from the French authorities. France, like the rest of Europe, is a lovely museum…

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